Stimulating Economies

By sb | November 30, 2008

The Missus and I braved the crowds on Friday to go shopping and personally stimulate the economy. Well, actually, we did some returning and exchanging along with some purchasing. Well going form retail store to retail store, I started thinking about the differences in layout and experience, so I had to pick up Underhill’s How We Buy. I’ll be reading it over the next months (along with other books).

Still, I remember a talk given by Len Riggio, the brains behind Barnes and Noble, in which he said that bricks and motor retail is dead. Based on Friday, it felt like some places are deader than others. Here’s my completely subjective ranking of all the stores that we went to on Friday.  My ranking has nothing to do with the sales going on that day, but rather, just a feeling about the stores in general.

Dead: Levis Store; Gap; Paper and Presentation; AI Friedman

Dying: Banana Republic; Barnes and Noble (sorry, Len); Lucky Brand Jeans

Alive: J. Crew; Bed Bath & Beyond; Muji (loved this store); Wired Store; Diesel Jeans

Also, given my short legs, I’m starting to wonder what the distribution of sizes is for people in the Unites States. The way that sizes are in shops, it would seem that every guy in the world is only two-to-four inches different in waist and height than another.

So much for proportion.

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How Hard Can It Be?

By sb | November 27, 2008

Last Friday, the Missus and I went with Jesse and his crew to go see the movie Twilight.  (The Missus is a fan of the book.)  Yeah, you already know.  It was that bad.

The best line of the evening – approximately, “if dogs are man’s best friend, why can’t vampires and werewolves get along?” – was actually from Jesse’s girlfriend Marissa.

So, when the conversation is better than the movie, I gotta wonder, how hard is it to make the movie?

I’m still stuck on that movie camera idea from the last post.

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Watch Crazy

By sb | November 23, 2008

Those magazines ads finally got to me.  You know those ads at the beginning of fancy magazines that advertise luxury watches?  I think that they finally moved me to action:  There was a banner ad on the NYTimes for a place called “Watch Avenue,” and I clicked and searched and fell in love with a watch.  Photo:

Audemars Piguet

Audemars Piguet

Yeah, but it is like $250K.

So, I started looking for other watches, and I found some that I liked that are more reasonably priced—just a couple of thousand dollars.  But, then I got to wondering about other things I could buy and use for the same amount of money:

A new electric guitar to make music?
A video camera to make movies?
Adobe Flash to make animations?

I need to figure out how to stimulate the economy.  Any thoughts are welcome.

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Bluffing versus Rolling the Dice

By sb | November 17, 2008

sucker

One of my favorite blogs to read is “Riding the F-Train,” written by an old college friend who became a lawyer, quit that, and writes about poker.  His posts are usually great because he is writing about poker games and things actually happen.  There’s a lot of narrative there.

Recently, he had a post about what Barack Obama means for poker.  What I find more interesting is a simple gambling comparison between John McCain and Barack Obama (that I never read about during the election):

John McCain plays craps — a game of odds, chance, and “rolling the dice.”
Barack Obama plays poker — a game of progressive betting, psychology, and trying to “read” or “bluff” your opponent.

Sure there are several other reasons why Obama was the better candidate, but given their gaming preference, is it any wonder Obama wiped the floor with McCain?

(Even as I write this post, I know that it will get a ton of spam from gambling sites . . . )

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“Friends, Good Friends and Such Good Friends”

By sb | November 15, 2008

“Friends, Good Friends and Such Good Friends” is the title of an essay by Judith Viorst that, when I was an editor of writing textbooks, was in far too many anthologies that used an outdated form of writing instruction.  (rhetorical modes)

It’s also a way to describe my old publishing friends whom I don’t work with anymore.

Last night, many of us got together for the second time in a week, and it was a lot of fun.  The Missus came along and had a good time as well.

The amount of shared good will and camaraderie within that group always struck me as something remarkable from a group of work friends, and as I move away from publishing, it seems unlikely that I will be cracking jokes about Comic Books, Jhumpa Lahiri and Sarah Palin at a work parties again.

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Tofu Jerk or Jerk Tofu?

By sb | November 14, 2008

So, my local Caribbean-inspired vegetarian place closed down this week.  What about yours?

What?  You don’t have a local Caribbean-inspired vegetarian place?  Just me?  Huh.

As I mentioned in Part 3 of my analysis of the new local coffee place in my neighborhood (Part 1, Part 2), you have to think of your customers, and in my section of Williamsburg there are two types of customers:  hipsters and Italians.  To be a viable option, you have to cater to both.

Actually, that’s a simplification:  beyond Italians there are several other types of blue-collar Brooklyn locals.  Do you think they want to go to Caribbean-inspired vegetarian place?  Or, the pizza place?

That said, the coffee place that I analyzed has started to follow my idea and offer breakfast sandwiches.  Not paninis, but we shall see.  Hopefully, they won’t end up like the last coffee place to close in my neighborhood.  (Which, coincidentally was in the location that the Caribbean-inspired vegetarian place opened in.)

Also, I’m waiting for the upscale Peruvian place to close down so that a decent Thai place can open up.  I think an inexpensive Thai place will do well in my neighborhood.  At this point, Thai is pretty familiar to anyone in NYC.  Or, at least more familiar than Caribbean-inspired vegetarian.

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Deconstructing Drivel on Derivatives

By sb | November 13, 2008

If you were to draw a thread through the business articles in last week’s New Yorker, you would think that business is full of toy-loving, outsider psychopaths who dabble in deconstructionism.

That last point about deconstructionism I find offensive.  (The rest is probably true.)

In the article likening derivatives to deconstructionism, Lanchester doesn’t do enough to differentiate between simple derivatives (e.g., “I’ll buy 100 pounds of wheat for $1 a pound next June:”) and complex derivatives (e.g., the dreaded Credit Default Swaps.)

His point person in all of this is Warren Buffet.  Lanchester claims, “Buffett dislikes derivatives.” He supports that with two quotes, like this:

The range of derivatives contracts is limited only by the imagination of man (or sometimes, so it seems, madmen). At Enron, for example, newsprint and broadband derivatives, due to be settled many years in the future, were put on the books. Or say you want to write a contract speculating on the number of twins to be born in Nebraska in 2020. No problem—at a price, you will easily find an obliging counterparty.

The second:

No matter how financially sophisticated you are, you can’t possibly learn from reading the disclosure documents of a derivatives-intensive company what risks lurk in its positions. Indeed, the more you know about derivatives, the less you will feel you can learn from the disclosures normally proffered you. In Darwin’s words, “Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge.”

What Buffet is railing against here is a COMPLEX derivative.  But a simple Google search shows that, Buffet’s company Berkshire Hathaway holds, you guessed it, DERIVATIVES.  Let me say that again:  Buffet manages derivatives. From page 16 of their 2007 annual report:

Last year I told you that Berkshire had 62 derivative contracts that I manage. (We also have a few left in the General Re runoff book.) Today, we have 94 of these [ . . .  ].

This is what happens when The New Yorker allows people to over-articulate business issues.  So while both Deriddian deconstructionism and complex derivatives are bad, conflating the two is a bit of pompous cocktail chatter.

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George W. Bush Ruined My Lunch

By sb | November 13, 2008

Dubya can’t do anything right.  Today while coming to the financial district to speak about the glories of the free market, he caused the police to close off the street where I was going to get Indian food.  I had to get a panini instead.

When Obama is president, I’ll be able to eat whatever I want.

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Analytics: So Sad

By sb | November 12, 2008

I only posted to the blog 4 times throughout the month of October, and my analytics have been dropping since August.  Of course, I’ve been working, but I think I will try to up the number of times I post.

Maybe I should try to blog everyday, like Tori.

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America’s Most Canadian Bank

By sb | November 11, 2008

I can’t find the other vintage banking commercial I wanted.  I wanted to find commercials of Julia Louis Dreyfus pitching Commerce Bank and all their customer-friendly features.

It was a good campaign that started around 2003-04, when Commerce expanded into NYC.  Here is a list of those customer-friendly features from their Wikipedia page:

  • 7 day lobby or drive-thru hours, even in Center City Philadelphia and Manhattan
  • Instant creation of ATM cards on the spot at the time of account opening
  • Free “Penny Arcade” coin counting machines for both customers and non-customers
  • No-Fee Visa Gift Cards for customers
  • Lollipops and dog biscuits in the lobby and drive-thru
  • Foreign ATM fee reimbursement (if you maintain a daily balance of $2,500 through the statement cycle)
  • “No Stupid Fees, No Stupid Hours”

These guys were a model of customer experience brand building, but then unfortunately, all the work they’ve done on building that brand was undone when a judge unwound their post-TD merger brand because of another bank in Massachusetts.  Now, Commerce is known as TD Bank, which stands for Toronto Dominion.  Now, they are spending $20 million to brand that, but they are using the same slogan: “America’s Most Convenient Bank.”

Really?  TD Bank?  Even if they can’t keep the established Commerce brand, is the “established” brand of T Rowe Price TB TD Bank their best option?

And, can a bank called Toronto Dominion be “America’s Most Convenient Bank” without even a tinge of irony?

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“Flexible Lending Rules”

By sb | November 11, 2008

Remember this commercial?

Yeah, it was easy to get a home loan.  So, what ever happend to Washington Mutual?

A few more posts on banks forthcoming.

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Nick and Nora’s Postcard of NYC

By sb | November 9, 2008

The Missus and I went to go see Nick and Nora’s Infinite Playlist tonight, and the Missus had the best take on it, which is that it was really a movie about NYC — like it was a postcard.  For us, it was seeing all the places we go.  (“Look!  There’s our exit on the BQE!”)

Contributing to that is the fact that the characters were . . . dull.  Like, you wouldn’t want to hang out with them.  The Missus remarked that she wanted to see more witty conversation.  And, I have to think that if these characters didn’t spend all their time gallivanting around New York and were trapped in the suburbs, they would have to become witty to entertain themselves.

So the movie was a tour of clubs/bars/diners in New York.  For me (for the sake of the blog) it was mostly about nostalgia.  Here’s the list with the memories that crossed my mind as I was watching the movie:

  • Arlene’s Grocery:  When Pops first performed with Sexy Grandpa, I missed this show here because I didn’t have a valid ID.  I had been robbed the week before.  (Say, how did teenage Nick and Nora get in here?)
  • Bowery Ballroom:  Best show I ever saw here was Magnetic Fields in 2000.  Also, The Hold Steady around 2006 and Laura Cantrell around 2002-3 were top contenders.
  • Union Pool (called “Brooklyn Pool” in the movie):  Never saw a show here, but once took terrible pictures of the Missus’s friends when we were out drinking.  Also, you can see our stop on the BQE from here.
  • Crash Mansion:  I never took a course with Adjunct Professor Jeremy Kagan when I was at b-school, but he won’t stop emailing me.  He promotes this place.
  • Velselka:  I remembered waiting in line for brunch here in 1999, before they remodeled it.  I like it better now.
  • Grace Church:  I have never gone in here, but I remembered that this was where David Duchovny and Tea Leoni got married.  They’re divorced now.
  • Waverly (exterior):  I haven’t eaten here since 1999.
  • Mercury Lounge:  mentioned, not seen.  I’m usually here watching Jennifer O’Connor.

All in all, I missed Asta.

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To Be 17 Forever

By sb | November 8, 2008

Last night, the Missus and I went to go see Drive-By Truckers and The Hold Steady at Terminal 5.  Jesse’s crew was also there, but they were closer to the front of the stage.  (Kids!)  I’m waiting to steal pictures from someone’s Flickr account when they go up.  I’ll add one here.

It was the only rock show that I’ve been to where the band was calling out and people were cheering the results of a recent election.  Amazing.  Also, Patterson Hood referenced this article by George Wallace’s Obama-supporting daughter before playing “Wallace.”  (When I included “Wallace” in a trivia round at Pete’s Candy Store, no one could answer what it was or who it was about.)

Favorite Parts:

  • Almost every song by The Hold Steady, but especially “Sequestered in Memphis,” “Chips Ahoy,” and — the Missus’s song — “Little Hoodrat Friend.”  Oh, and “Multitude of Casualties.”  Oh, and the opening “Hornets, Hornets.”  (It was like watching them at Bowery in . . . 2006?)
  • “Wallace” by DBT.
  • Seeing someone from b-school in the crowd.  Who knew?
  • The super DBT fan off the third floor balcony who was going CRAZY to every song.

Disappointments:

  • No “Gravity’s Gone” by DBT.

The Missus’s favorite line of the night was “To be seventeen forever.”  In that spirit, we’re likely going to see “Nick and Nora’s Infinite Playlist” tonight.  It’s good to revise what 17 was, especially now when 17 is almost half a lifetime ago. If I really think about it, and spend too much time on Facebook looking up people I knew in high school, I will remember that 17 wasn’t really that great.

My favorite line (also from “Stevie Nix”), “to be thirty three forever.”

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Comfort in History

By sb | November 2, 2008

I don’t know about you, but I’ve been looking at historic results trying to predict what’s going to happen on Tuesday.  I know that it’s swinging Obama’s way, but I just don’t believe it.  And then there’s this from a NYTimes op-ed:

NYtimes

NYtimes

There have only been two upsets in my lifetime.  And, Obama is clearly going in with a Bush v. Dukakis type lead.  Good.  And what about this from Real Clear Politics:

Bush v. Kerry

Bush v. Kerry

As close as I thought that 2004 was going to be, we never had a chance post-September.

Of course, all models based on history have a problem when they encounter something that has not happened in history (c.f., S&P models of CMBS), but these two graphics help me worry a bit less . . .

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“I’m not even supposed to be here today.”

By sb | November 1, 2008

I went to go see the new romantic comedy that’s uses filming a porn movie as a device with Jesse and his crew this evening.

I forgot that it was a Kevin Smith movie and, as such, came with a lot of the Kevin Smith crew, including Jason Mewes and the guy who played Randal.

This got me thinking of when I watched Clerks for the first time in the NYU student center 14 years ago and 10 blocks away from where I was watching this movie.  Of course, the NYU student center that I knew was demolished to make room for the better one they have now.  Here’s a video with weird music that shows this happening, I hope this embed works:

And, I’m conflicted about what to think of all this nostalgia.  Everything feels like something else, and I’m in a permanent state of déjà vu.  At work, I’m one of the new guys, and that’s weird.  I feel like a recent college grad, except, I’ve already done all this once before.  Halloween parties and everything . . .

Tonight:  Quiet evening at home, reading.

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